I've posted a couple of diary entries over at Daily Kos recently. In the interest of full access, here's a couple of links to those pieces:
Baseball the size of hail
Streets Paved With Zinc
There will also be a link here to my piece, "The Champs-Chumps Ratio," which will be in the upcoming issue of the e-zine teemings. I'll post a link to that when it is up and available.
Further cross-reference links will show up in the blog whenever I write something for another outlet.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Monday, April 19, 2010
Baseball 2010
To inaugurate Malchats Matters, my new home on the web, I am reproducing here my predictions for this year's baseball season. As always, it's a rich and savory chance to be dead wrong in public, and to put that chance on the record, or at least on someone else's server. So, enjoy. But please, as always, no wagering.
It's that time again: the budding cusp of a new baseball season, and another chance to be hideously wrong in a public forum. It's a chance I can never pass up, so here they are, my predictions for who will do what in Major League Baseball 2010:
AL East
New York 108-54
Boston 101-61
Tampa Bay 88-74
Toronto 77-85
Baltimore 74-88
AL Central
Chicago 92-70
Minnesota 90-72
Detroit 87-75
Kansas City 74-88
Cleveland 65-97
AL West
Los Angeles 106-86
Seattle 86-76
Oakland 78-84
Texas 74-88
NL East
Philadelphia 100-62
Atlanta 95-67
Florida 83-79
New York 79-83
Washington 72-90
NL Central
St. Louis 90-72
Milwaukee 85-77
Chicago 77-85
Houston 74-88
Cincinnati 72-90
Pittsburgh 57-105
NL West
Los Angeles 99-63
San Francisco 85-77
Colorado 83-79
San Diego 79-83
Arizona 75-87
You'll notice a lot of really gaudy records predicted in that table. I don't really expect, for instance, that the Yankees will win 108 games. And I don't think baseball has ever seen a season where four teams won 100 or more games. These inflated records are a product of my methodology for predicting teams' records. I introduced some new factors to my calculations this year, and there are obviously a few flaws in the system, kinks that need to be worked out in the coming years. Nevertheless, while the records may not prove precise, I stand by the relative strengths and weaknesses indicated by the predictions above. The strong teams do stand a substantial cut above the weaker teams throughout the leagues. And I expect, given the predicted records above, that this will be another season where strong AL teams feast upon an abundance of weaker NL teams.
As for individual division outlooks:
AL EAST -- This looks depressingly familiar. The plain truth is, New York looks to be better than last year, Boston has stepped up a notch...and the rest of the teams mostly stood pat. Noises have been made to the contrary, but the disgraceful truth remains that the other three teams in this division are simply not making the effort (spending the money?) to challenge the top two teams. Tampa Bay is a nice little team, but nice little teams don't cut it against the rapacious beasts who live above them. Toronto looks like a major backslide, and Baltimore still doesn't have a legitimate rotation.
AL CENTRAL -- Chicago finally looks like it has the team that can recapture the mid-decade magic that led to a title. They look just a hair better than the Twins, who look less impressive on paper--as always--yet seem to know how to get it done. Detroit has the look of a team with one hand tied behind its back, though whether that's an offensive or defensive hand is hard to tell; maybe it's both. Kansas City is just not there--not much pitching, not much offense, not much hope. At least they're not Cleveland; I foresee a major meltdown for the Tribe, who contended for a championship just a few years ago. It just goes to show, kids: be careful when you play with trading Cy Young Award winners.
AL WEST -- It is an absurdity to predict 100 wins for the Angels, after they lost both their #1 starter and biggest bat in the off season. Yet, they actually look better than last year's squad, which got no competition from the rest of the division. They may be the insider pick to win it all this year. Seattle is better, but not as much better as people think they are; this will be, essentially, a year of treading water for them. Oakland could make a jump up to a winning season, or even contend for a wild card spot if things get crazy...but I just don't trust their hitting or management to make that happen. Texas was a feel good story for a while, but I'm afraid there's backsliding going on, and last year's good showing will now disappear in a white, cloudy puff of...something.
NL EAST -- The best team got better; the other teams didn't. That's the short of it here, where the Phillies should comfortably cruise into the playoffs again. Better pitching overall, and simply the best lineup top to bottom in the league--and even improved over last season's juggernaut--should get them all the way to another championship series. Atlanta is coalescing into a fine team, one that could contend for it all in a year or two. But not now. Florida is Florida--lots of young talent, just not enough to take them very far (short of another lightning in a bottle championship, and I don't see that happening again soon). New York and Washington form the ugly underneath--one team on the way down, the other rising ever so slowly. There will be optimism in the Capital by the end of the season, and insanity in Queens by the same time.
NL CENTRAL -- St. Louis wins almost by default, as the best of an otherwise meager bunch. Lucky for them they have Pujols; otherwise they might be just another one of the Five Dwarves. Milwaukee gets to brag about being runner-up--generally not an enviable position but which makes them look fine compared to the rest of this division. You'll hear plenty of blather about Chicago this year, as always. The Cubs get lots of press; what they don't get are a lot of wins, which is how they determine who reaches the playoffs. Houston is the same as they ever were: an up and down team that will do a little of this, then a little of that, all of which will ultimately amount to nothing. Cincinnati should be better than this, yet they don't seem to be stepping up and getting the players they need to compete. They're a rudderless ship. Speaking of which, by now Pittsburgh has become the NL's Mary Celeste: a ghost ship, aimlessly drifting through empty seas, barely echoing with the memories of the vibrant, alive vessel it used to be. It's a crime that Pirate fans have had to endure this for so long.
NL WEST -- Here lives the one chance to stop the Philly machine in its tracks: the Dodgers. These guys pitch, they hit, they field, they light up the Jumbotron--Los Angeles is clearly the best team in this division, and may be the team that takes down the Phillies. San Francisco is continuing a nice resurgence, but they don't look like they've stepped up from last year--just held steady where they were. Another team treading water, as it were. Colorado is the chic pick in the NL this year, but don't get caught up; they may catch fire again, but not for the whole season, and you've got to sustain the good play over 162 to get invited to the party. It says here they'll hit a rut that will cost them enough to keep them out of it. San Diego is finally trying to tailor their team to their ballpark. Good idea, but the experiment must play out over a few seasons to get the blueprint down pat. Arizona is supposed to be loaded with pitching, but so are the other contenders in this division, and at least those guys can hit, too. Not much there in the desert to satisfy a skeptic.
Playoffs
It looks like we'll get LA vs. Boston in one division series. In the past this would have been a clear choice for Boston, but LA exorcised those demons last season. The Angels will take care of them again this year. The other side sees Chicago vs. New York in the other division series. The White Sox will put up a fight, but the Yankees will eventually overwhelm them. This sets up an LA vs. NY rematch. Last year's series was closer than it looked, which is why I think that this time I think LA will pull it out.
In the NL, form shows a Philadelphia vs. St. Louis series going to the Phillies, despite one or two good moments for the Cardinals. In the other series, LA vs. Atlanta, the Dodgers will quickly dispatch the upstart Braves. So, another rematch, LA vs. Philadelphia. This one goes seven games this time; good thing the Phillies have that last game in their home park; they pull it out, probably in their last at bat.
World Series
Los Angeles Angels vs. Philadelphia Phillies. This is scary for a Phillies fan. The Angels are no slouches, they can pitch with the best of them, and they have proven playoff performers in their lineup. But the Phillies will have Halladay, a revived Hamels, an improved Happ, and tough-in-a-corner Blanton to count on as starters. No slouches there, either. Plus anyone they might pickup during the season--and you can count on them to go after anyone who is quality and who is available. And they still have that ferocious lineup, which can wear down the Angels high quality arms. I see Phillies in 6 this time, and the mini-dynasty is made.
Hoo-rah.
It's that time again: the budding cusp of a new baseball season, and another chance to be hideously wrong in a public forum. It's a chance I can never pass up, so here they are, my predictions for who will do what in Major League Baseball 2010:
AL East
New York 108-54
Boston 101-61
Tampa Bay 88-74
Toronto 77-85
Baltimore 74-88
AL Central
Chicago 92-70
Minnesota 90-72
Detroit 87-75
Kansas City 74-88
Cleveland 65-97
AL West
Los Angeles 106-86
Seattle 86-76
Oakland 78-84
Texas 74-88
NL East
Philadelphia 100-62
Atlanta 95-67
Florida 83-79
New York 79-83
Washington 72-90
NL Central
St. Louis 90-72
Milwaukee 85-77
Chicago 77-85
Houston 74-88
Cincinnati 72-90
Pittsburgh 57-105
NL West
Los Angeles 99-63
San Francisco 85-77
Colorado 83-79
San Diego 79-83
Arizona 75-87
You'll notice a lot of really gaudy records predicted in that table. I don't really expect, for instance, that the Yankees will win 108 games. And I don't think baseball has ever seen a season where four teams won 100 or more games. These inflated records are a product of my methodology for predicting teams' records. I introduced some new factors to my calculations this year, and there are obviously a few flaws in the system, kinks that need to be worked out in the coming years. Nevertheless, while the records may not prove precise, I stand by the relative strengths and weaknesses indicated by the predictions above. The strong teams do stand a substantial cut above the weaker teams throughout the leagues. And I expect, given the predicted records above, that this will be another season where strong AL teams feast upon an abundance of weaker NL teams.
As for individual division outlooks:
AL EAST -- This looks depressingly familiar. The plain truth is, New York looks to be better than last year, Boston has stepped up a notch...and the rest of the teams mostly stood pat. Noises have been made to the contrary, but the disgraceful truth remains that the other three teams in this division are simply not making the effort (spending the money?) to challenge the top two teams. Tampa Bay is a nice little team, but nice little teams don't cut it against the rapacious beasts who live above them. Toronto looks like a major backslide, and Baltimore still doesn't have a legitimate rotation.
AL CENTRAL -- Chicago finally looks like it has the team that can recapture the mid-decade magic that led to a title. They look just a hair better than the Twins, who look less impressive on paper--as always--yet seem to know how to get it done. Detroit has the look of a team with one hand tied behind its back, though whether that's an offensive or defensive hand is hard to tell; maybe it's both. Kansas City is just not there--not much pitching, not much offense, not much hope. At least they're not Cleveland; I foresee a major meltdown for the Tribe, who contended for a championship just a few years ago. It just goes to show, kids: be careful when you play with trading Cy Young Award winners.
AL WEST -- It is an absurdity to predict 100 wins for the Angels, after they lost both their #1 starter and biggest bat in the off season. Yet, they actually look better than last year's squad, which got no competition from the rest of the division. They may be the insider pick to win it all this year. Seattle is better, but not as much better as people think they are; this will be, essentially, a year of treading water for them. Oakland could make a jump up to a winning season, or even contend for a wild card spot if things get crazy...but I just don't trust their hitting or management to make that happen. Texas was a feel good story for a while, but I'm afraid there's backsliding going on, and last year's good showing will now disappear in a white, cloudy puff of...something.
NL EAST -- The best team got better; the other teams didn't. That's the short of it here, where the Phillies should comfortably cruise into the playoffs again. Better pitching overall, and simply the best lineup top to bottom in the league--and even improved over last season's juggernaut--should get them all the way to another championship series. Atlanta is coalescing into a fine team, one that could contend for it all in a year or two. But not now. Florida is Florida--lots of young talent, just not enough to take them very far (short of another lightning in a bottle championship, and I don't see that happening again soon). New York and Washington form the ugly underneath--one team on the way down, the other rising ever so slowly. There will be optimism in the Capital by the end of the season, and insanity in Queens by the same time.
NL CENTRAL -- St. Louis wins almost by default, as the best of an otherwise meager bunch. Lucky for them they have Pujols; otherwise they might be just another one of the Five Dwarves. Milwaukee gets to brag about being runner-up--generally not an enviable position but which makes them look fine compared to the rest of this division. You'll hear plenty of blather about Chicago this year, as always. The Cubs get lots of press; what they don't get are a lot of wins, which is how they determine who reaches the playoffs. Houston is the same as they ever were: an up and down team that will do a little of this, then a little of that, all of which will ultimately amount to nothing. Cincinnati should be better than this, yet they don't seem to be stepping up and getting the players they need to compete. They're a rudderless ship. Speaking of which, by now Pittsburgh has become the NL's Mary Celeste: a ghost ship, aimlessly drifting through empty seas, barely echoing with the memories of the vibrant, alive vessel it used to be. It's a crime that Pirate fans have had to endure this for so long.
NL WEST -- Here lives the one chance to stop the Philly machine in its tracks: the Dodgers. These guys pitch, they hit, they field, they light up the Jumbotron--Los Angeles is clearly the best team in this division, and may be the team that takes down the Phillies. San Francisco is continuing a nice resurgence, but they don't look like they've stepped up from last year--just held steady where they were. Another team treading water, as it were. Colorado is the chic pick in the NL this year, but don't get caught up; they may catch fire again, but not for the whole season, and you've got to sustain the good play over 162 to get invited to the party. It says here they'll hit a rut that will cost them enough to keep them out of it. San Diego is finally trying to tailor their team to their ballpark. Good idea, but the experiment must play out over a few seasons to get the blueprint down pat. Arizona is supposed to be loaded with pitching, but so are the other contenders in this division, and at least those guys can hit, too. Not much there in the desert to satisfy a skeptic.
Playoffs
It looks like we'll get LA vs. Boston in one division series. In the past this would have been a clear choice for Boston, but LA exorcised those demons last season. The Angels will take care of them again this year. The other side sees Chicago vs. New York in the other division series. The White Sox will put up a fight, but the Yankees will eventually overwhelm them. This sets up an LA vs. NY rematch. Last year's series was closer than it looked, which is why I think that this time I think LA will pull it out.
In the NL, form shows a Philadelphia vs. St. Louis series going to the Phillies, despite one or two good moments for the Cardinals. In the other series, LA vs. Atlanta, the Dodgers will quickly dispatch the upstart Braves. So, another rematch, LA vs. Philadelphia. This one goes seven games this time; good thing the Phillies have that last game in their home park; they pull it out, probably in their last at bat.
World Series
Los Angeles Angels vs. Philadelphia Phillies. This is scary for a Phillies fan. The Angels are no slouches, they can pitch with the best of them, and they have proven playoff performers in their lineup. But the Phillies will have Halladay, a revived Hamels, an improved Happ, and tough-in-a-corner Blanton to count on as starters. No slouches there, either. Plus anyone they might pickup during the season--and you can count on them to go after anyone who is quality and who is available. And they still have that ferocious lineup, which can wear down the Angels high quality arms. I see Phillies in 6 this time, and the mini-dynasty is made.
Hoo-rah.
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