Midseason Review

So we're at the All-Star break (or a day or two later--no difference), the traditional mid point of the baseball season, so let's take a look at my predictions made back in April.

In the AL, two of my three picks to win their divisions, New York and Chicago, are in first place as of the break. The third, Los Angeles, is in second place, a perfectly reasonable 4.5 games out. My choice for the wild card, Boston, trails Tampa Bay by 3.5 games--again, not an insurmountable lead. Most of the rest of the divisions play out about as I expected, with most teams within one slot of their predicted order of finish. The one wild hare (hair?) is Texas, who are far exceeding my expectations. I must admit, at this point, that the Rangers seem for real to me, and I don't expect them to fade away. That said, I reiterate as above, the Angels can still overtake them without extraordinary effort. Expect this to be close all the way to the end.

The NL looks quite a bit different. None of my predicted division winners hold first place at the moment. I had Atlanta as a wild card team, so I definitely knew they would make a move upward; I just didn't expect the disgracefully indifferent play of the Phillies, who should have a substantially better record right now, injuries or not. And San Diego and Cincinnati have played far above my expectations; I had both clubs in the bottom of their divisions, if not actually in last place. Nevertheless, I see the Phillies within striking distance (5.5 games out) if they would just get their shit together; I see St. Louis a mere whisker behind the Reds, at 0.5 GB; and Los Angeles, at 2.5 GB, breathing heavily upon the necks of the Padres (and the Rockies, just a half game ahead of the Dodgers). And the rest of each division stacks not too far away from what I predicted (indeed, with the exception of the Reds, the Central stacks exactly as I predicted--a decent trick even for half a season.

Put it all together, and I feel good about my prognostications. I'm definitely getting the hang of this. Not quite Stephen the Greek, perhaps, but moving ever closer to making this preseason prediction thing less a guess, more a science.

Selah.