Dedicated readers of this space will remember that last year's predictions were fairly hit and miss, and included some wild predictions vis-a-vis the expected final records of some teams, particularly those teams expected to finish at the top of their divisions. I made a minor adjustment to my formula, reeled in the number of factors I take into account when analyzing the teams' strengths and weakness, and overall tried to make things simpler. It seems to have worked, for the most part: most of the predicted division winners have "reasonable" records, though there are a couple of exceptions as noted below. All the rest of the teams went through the ringer and came out with records that look about right, given the teams in question. Of course, only October will tell how successful these predictions have been.
So without further ado, here are this season's predictions:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
WEST
1. 97-65 Los Angeles Angels
2. 80-82 Texas Rangers
3. 79-83 Seattle Mariners
4. 78-84 Oakland Athletics
CENTRAL
1. 91-71 Minnesota Twins
2. 89-73 Detroit Tigers
3. 83-79 Chicago White Sox
4. 67-95 Kansas City Royals
5. 64-98 Cleveland Indians
EAST
1. 105-57 Boston Red Sox
2. 101-61 New York Yankees
3. 87-75 Tampa Bay Rays
4. 74-88 Toronto Blue Jays
5. 68-94 Baltimore Orioles
NATIONAL LEAGUE
WEST
1. 86-74 San Francisco Giants
2. 83-79 Los Angeles Dodgers
3. 77-85 Arizona Diamondbacks
4. 74-88 Colorado Rockies
5. 72-90 San Diego Padres
CENTRAL
1. 85-77 Milwaukee Brewers
2. 84-78 Chicago Cubs
3. 82-80 St. Louis Cardinals
4. 77-85 Houston Astros
5. 74-88 Cincinnati Reds
6. 63-99 Pittsburgh Pirates
EAST
1. 99-63 Philadelphia Phillies
2. 96-66 Atlanta Braves
3. 86-76 Florida Marlins
4. 74-88 New York Mets
5. 66-96 Washington Nationals
NOTES:
AL WEST: Back to the future: the Angels rebound and come up big again to win the division. I know there are rotation problems, but I expect them to hammer them out soon enough, probably with a trade or call-up (or two), and the rest of the team's strengths will carry the days. The Rangers still have a lot of bats, to be sure, but I still don't trust their pitching, again. This year marks the fall back. The Mariners will make strides, perhaps baby strides, but forward strides nevertheless, as they come back from last year's disaster. The big problem in the division is the A's, who have a lot of expectations on them, but then again, so did Seattle last year. Chances they live up to those expectations? Not great, unless ALL of their starting pitchers step up and post double digit win totals combined with perfect health. Otherwise, Oakland will see a disappointing step back.
AL CENTRAL: The AL's answer to the cockroach, the Twins, look like the favorites here. There's no killing them, even when injuries strike, and the odds are strong that better health is in the northern air. The Tigers seem to be running in place; same cast, same strengths and weaknesses, about the same results. I fully expected the White Sox to be the pick here, but the starting rotation shows surprising weakness, and I don't think the strong lineup will cut it. Back to the drawing board, again, for the Royals, now post-Greinke. Sad to see a team with such a proud history reduced to this, but at least they're not Pittsburgh. The Indians? Yeesh. The less said the better.
AL EAST: And here are the oddballs. I noted earlier that last year's predictions saw some inordinately good records come out of the forecasting machine. That problem has mostly been corrected, but here, the Red Sox and the Yankees both show over 100 win totals. Is there still a problem, or is this just an anomaly caused by statistical strangeness? Maybe a little from column A, maybe a little from column B--and maybe the third factor is, these teams really are that good. Both are truly loaded, and I expect at least one of them to actually exceed 100 wins for the season. It says here Boston comes out on top, but I won't be surprised if New York makes a change mid-season that shakes up the order. Again, I expect the Rays to be the junior partner--a good team that just doesn't have quite enough. They won the division last year in a surprise, but their first round playoff ouster seemed about right for them. They don't get so far this year. Maybe the Blue Jays think there's an exchange rate between here and Canada for ERA, and that that plus all the big bats will cover up the holes in the rotation. No such luck, hosers. Everyone's very intrigued by Buck Showalter's effect on the Orioles. It will take more than a baseball Svengali to make up for the fact that Baltimore has virtually no pitching. The crash will come, sooner rather than later.
NL WEST: Surprising strength from the Giants. Surprising because, as many seem to have forgotten in the wake of their championship, SF only got into the playoffs because of San Diego's collapse. Two more losses, and the Giants would have been watching at home. That said, they are well positioned because of their rotation to make it back to the postseason, though there are some roster questions that still need to be answered (the outfield, mainly). Again, I'm expecting more of the Dodgers than most people. They won't blow people away, as I predicted last year, but the situation is growing more stable by the day, and that bodes well for their performance over the course of the season. There are still a lot of good pieces in place there. The Diamondbacks lead the rest of a relatively weak field; they're improving, but not in leaps and bounds. Colorado still has lots of thunder in the lineup, but I still don't see enough pitching past Jimenez to make a big difference--as usual with that team. And the Rockies are prone to following up good years with bad years. The crash will come hard in San Diego, I think, although I don't feel comfortable about their record--the Padres could surprise again under Bud Black's wildly effective leadership. I have them in last place, but I won't be surprised if they find some magic juice again and creep up the standings.
NL CENTRAL: The usual hodgepodge of "almost, not quite" teams. That means the Brewers get placed in first almost by default; they don't make believers out of anybody, but I think the two AL recruits in the rotation, Greinke and Marcum, will pay big dividends by the end of the season. More hand-wringing on the north side for the Cubs--they'll probably be in first place until late in the season, when the cruelty of baseball will once again kick them in the collective groins. That seems to be already happening with the Cardinals: the Pujols situation, Wainwright's injury, and now Holliday is mourning his lost appendix. That and more agony will lead to a middle of the road season. At least the beer sales will be big, as always. The Astros are perking up. A bit--nothing major yet, but they are recovering from last year's disastrous start and have the nose pointed upward (though this year has not gotten off well, as of this posting). You'll think I'm crazy, but I see the Reds falling hard. I didn't really believe in them much last year, and when they went out quietly in the first round last October, I think they found their level. And I'm always leery of "out of nowhere" guys like Votto--there's little chance he can do it again. Their only hope is that Dusty Baker's forceful personality just won't let a slide happen. At least Cincinnati has that hope--the Pirates are consigned to some sort of sporting Hell. How can a professional franchise go this long without any--and I mean ANY--pitching? Seriously, someone should go to jail for this kind of bad management.
NL EAST: Now we're talking: the Phillies have the look of a dominant club, and they're only going to be better once Utley gets back into the swing of things. Barring multiple major injuries, they should be the class of the league again. Only the Braves can wreck Philadelphia's train. Atlanta is loaded, to be sure, in the lineup and the rotation; they're just one step behind the Phillies, and by the end the records will bear that out. Further south, they won't wind up winning anything, but no one is going to be happy playing the Marlins. That's a tough team with good arms and a few heavy bats in the order; they will make life unpleasant for a lot of teams before succumbing to the inevitable in the end. I love to take cruel pleasure in the pain of the Mets, so don't be surprised by my predicted record for them--I see little hope that they'll overcome their problems to make much of a move this year. Maybe down the line. And despite my pick for a fifth place showing, the Nationals really are getting better. I just don't think it will show up in the standings until next year. One more year in the basement, then brighter days ahead.
POSTSEASON
So what's it all come to at the end? I think we're looking at Giants vs. Braves again in the NLDS, along with Phillies vs. Brewers. We've seen both those acts before in recent years; the Phils will dispose of Milwaukee once again, but this time I see the Braves taking out the Giants. Just a luck of the draw thing. That sets up what could be a real war in the NLCS, Phillies vs. Braves. I expect the Phillies to hold serve and come through, probably in 6 or 7 games.
Over in the AL, I see Red Sox vs. Twins in the ALDS, with Angels vs. Yankees on the under card. For once, the plucky Twins will not have to face their playoff nemesis New York in the first round; unfortunately, it won't matter--Red Sox move on. The other series depends on Hank Steinbrenner's wallet--to wit, if the Yankees pick up another live arm for the rotation mid-season, maybe they'll have enough to get past the Angels. But I can't think of a difference maker who will be available then. My guess is the Yanks come up short at the trading deadline, then it costs them in the playoffs. So the ALCS looks like Red Sox vs. Angels. This will be a more difficult series than a first glance would tell, but I suspect Boston will prevail, probably in 5 but maybe six games.
At last, we come to the World Series: Boston vs. Philadelphia. No "disappointments" like last year--this will be a meeting of two acknowledged heavyweights, with plenty of drama and back and forth play. Everything in the book says the Red Sox get a slight edge in just about every category, yet...I'm willing to play the homer card, and I suspect that Boston is due to embark on another 86 years of torment. It says here that it starts this fall: Phillies in 6, possibly 7. Selah.
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